ASA in the News
2010
Beneath the Surface 
Powerful computer simulations may be the best method available to quantify the amount of oil leaking from the Deepwater Horizon - and to predict where it will go. By Holly Capelo To apprehend the ultimate outcome of the Deepwater Horizon tragedy in the Gulf of Mexico, we take in hand the technological tools at our disposal to make decisions about the future. So far, these tools have offered little certainty. Due to the failings of British Petroleum (BP) and government regulators to prevent the oilrig explosion that happened on April 20th, and subsequently to contain the spill, there lingers a hazy distinction between corporate dishonesty and the error margins germane to unprecedented emergency circumstances. After an accident of this magnitude, who can quantify which fate is most regrettable, irreparable wildlife devastation in Louisiana marshes, or in underwater canyons? Desecrated beaches in Florida or, if the Loop Current sweeps the oil around the Panhandle, in Georgia? Lost livelihoods in tourism, or in fishing? Still, groups and individuals doing damage control need to know where the oil is likely to go. We seek predictions from reliable measurements because even minute amounts of oil in the water can kill fish, plankton, and larvae—which is highly unfortunate for all of us higher up on the food chain. Spill responders and government agencies need finite figures, rather than wildly fluctuating oil-flow estimates, to price cleanup efforts and penalty fines. Fishermen must know when, if ever, they can safely return to work, while the threat of more lost jobs plagues the ongoing economic recovery. Set within a long-term dream of energy independence, the disquiet over these more immediate concerns is so much louder. Beneath the Gulf of Mexico, there remains a complex underwater system whose fate is described by well-developed computer models. Reciprocally, by providing fresh verification data, measurements of the subsurface plumes are refining the codes’ predictive abilities. But have they the potential to divine the future of the oil, and the myriad troubles that upwell from this disaster? Simulations may be the best way of grasping oil behavior and therefore quelling fears of the unknown, yet exact figures elude us. |