Newletter

How Science is Contributing to the Quonset Port Development Stakeholder Process ASA recently evaluated the environmental effects of two proposed LNG terminal facilities, one onshore and the other offshore. For the onshore terminal the impacts on marine biota in response to dredging the access channel were determined. ASA's hydrodynamic, suspended sediment fate, and biological dosing models were used to evaluate the effects of sediment released during dredging operations to deepen the existing channel.

Emergency Response Planning Tool for LNG
The increasing use of LNG and its consequent transport increases the possibility of a spill due to either accidents or terrorist activities. Work is currently underway at ASA to develop a model system for evaluating the consequences of an LNG spill on water. The integrated models will predict the fate of LNG (or other cryogenic liquid) beginning with its release from a tanker or pipeline. Spreading, vaporization, burning, and vapor dispersion will be included. Thermal radiation resulting from a pool fire is of particular concern.

The models will be incorporated in a comprehensive GIS-based user interface to simplify specification of the release scenario and facilitate interpretation of model results. Hazardous concentrations and thermal radiation levels overlaid on a map of the affected region will indicate areas of concern at a glance.

A Planning Atlas for Florida Power and Light It's always smart to have a map. That's why Applied Science Associates is finishing work on a color planning atlas for 11 Florida Power and Light (FPL) power generation facilities. The atlas contains maps of natural resources, environmental data, and modeling results for each FPL facility. ASA's three-dimensional modeling analysis includes probability and extent of oiling over time for a variety of oil types and possible volumes that could be spilled. FPL will use the resulting probability maps to plan response strategies.
The probabilities of surface oil, shoreline oil, subsurface oil, and water column aromatics exceeding thresholds of concern were quantified using Applied Science Associates' three-dimensional stochastic model in SIMAP. Long-term historical wind and current data were assembled for the area of interest. The model was run many times, randomizing the input parameters. The spill volume was held constant or randomized up to the possible worst-case amount for each run. The mean expected and worst case results provide statistics that may be used in planning response or in risk assessment.	Sample stochastic probabilities for a hypothetical spill in the St. Johns river as part of FPL's oil spill preparedness program.

Modeling results may be studied not only through the atlas, but also electronically through SIMAP's user interface. The user may select from the library of simulations to determine the conditions under which worst-case oiling occurs.

This analysis allows oil spill responders as well as those assessing potential impacts to answer important questions, such as:

1. What is the probability of oiling, above a threshold of concern, for each location near a potential spill site?
2. How soon will oil reach each site of concern?
3. How much oil contamination is expected?
4. Is there a potential for impacting biological resources with this oil?

The several governments bordering the Caspian seek to cooperate with the oil industries to generate suitable contingency plans for response to emergency spill incidents. The Workshop proved a useful forum for the littoral states and industry to jointly discuss these areas in detail and set priorities for the next phase of the CEP.

ASA's input showed the application of an integrated spill model and GIS system, and how such systems can help foster cooperation in the region and assist the CEP in:

• Setting up geo-referenced databases including the comprehensive review of the ecology of the Caspian Sea and the development of regionally coordinated coastal sensitivity and other data gathering initiatives.
• The development of suitable water circulation models of the Caspian Sea.
• The implementation of a regional pollution data monitoring program
• The introduction of a (GIS/model systems) technology transfer and training program to help support universities, industry and government agencies in the Caspian region.

ASA has completed development of an ArcView GIS interface for a US Army Corps of Engineers model that is used to simulate the short-term movement of contaminants introduced into the water column during ocean disposal of dredged sediment. This dredged material disposal model, called the Short Term FATE of dredged material (STFATE) model, was developed by the US. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), at the Waterways Experiment Station (WES). The model integrates detailed bathymetry, dredged material chemical and physical characteristics, water column data, and information on the disposal to predict contaminant concentrations in the water column for periods up to a few hours.
The probabilities of surface oil, shoreline oil, subsurface oil, and water column aromatics exceeding thresholds of concern were quantified using Applied Science Associates' three-dimensional stochastic model in SIMAP. Long-term historical wind and current data were assembled for the area of interest. The model was run many times, randomizing the input parameters. The spill volume was held constant or randomized up to the possible worst-case amount for each run. The mean expected and worst case results provide statistics that may be used in planning response or in risk assessment.	Simplified model interfaces are used to meet dredge disposal regulations.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires that the STFATE model is run prior to disposal of dredged material to determine if contaminants in the sediment will reach levels exceeding water quality criteria.

The New York District of the Corps of Engineers funded the interface development, and ASA and SAIC are supporting their application of STFATE in their operations and planning for placement of dredged material in the Historical Area Remediation site located seaward of New York Harbor.
ASA has completed similar interfaces for a suite of Corps of Engineers models within the ArcView framework. The interface simplifies the setup and operation of the models and greatly facilitates interpretation of model results for district engineers.

Chris Galagan, ASA's GIS manager who has been responsible for much of the GIS design says, "The use of open GIS, such as ArcView, allows us to manage global databases and apply these models anywhere in the world. The setup time to get data ready for the models has been significantly reduced."

Daniel Mendelsohn co-authored a paper with Eduardo Yassuda, Steven Davie and Steven Peene of Applied Technology and Management entitled Hydrodynamic Characterization of the Lower Savannah River Estuary. The paper was presented as a poster session by Eduardo and Steve at the AGU 1998 Fall Meeting in San Francisco, California. The paper describes a field program and modeling study of the Lower Savannah River to further our understanding of the estuary as an integrated system and to provide a tool for the evaluation of the potential environmental impacts of a proposed deepening of the shipping channel.

Daniel Mendelsohn and Tatsu Isaji along with Kenneth Hunkins of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia university authored Numerical Hydrodynamic Models of Lake Champlain. The paper was presented at the AGU Special Session, Lake Champlain: Research and Progress Towards Management Conference held at Middlebury College, Middlebury, Vermont. The paper discusses the important physical processes in the lake and focuses on the internal seiche which has been observed to dominate circulation, mixing and transport in the main body of the lake. One-dimensional and two-dimensional, one-layer and two-layer numerical models and their application to modeling the seiche are discussed.

Craig Swanson participated in the inaugural Coastal Institute seminar at the Graduate School of Oceanography at the University of Rhode Island on 17 December 1998. This first seminar was a presentation and discussion of the economic and environmental effects of a proposed container port at Quonset Point on Narragansett Bay.

Eoin Howlett delivered the latest version of SARMAP with the latest rapid Response Module (RRM) to the Irish Government's Irish Marine Emergency Services (IMES) in December. The RRM allows users to rapidly evaluate available search units, their distance from an incident, and their effectiveness if deployed to the search area.

Eoin Howlett presented Cozoil, The Coastal Zone Oil Spill Model, during the MMS Information Transfer Meeting (ITM) in Anchorage, Alaska, January 19, 1999.

Eoin Howlett delivered the final version of the Alaska Graphical Resource Database (GRD), a CD-ROM based GIS application that contains a wealth of environmental data as part of the Prince William Sound Nearshore Response Plan. The GRD was developed jointly with ASA and the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company and Emcon Alaska and is publicly available in Alaska. Eoin also trained Alyeska personnel, January 20/21, on the use of the latest version of the Alyeska Tactical Oil Spill Model (ATOM) which accesses the GRD data and real-time tanker and response vessel locations from a VTS.

Henry Rines and Eric Anderson, along with Michael Palet and Ana Maria Mora Alcaraz of GDS de Mexico, spent 18-23 October in the Dos Bocas, Mexico area collecting oceanographic data for inputs to hydrodynamic model simulations. In the lagoon behind the PEMEX Dos Bocas terminal they collected surface and bottom current meter observations through two complete tidal cycles, surveyed the vertical structure of the lagoon and entrance, and collected observations of local shoreline vegetation (predominantly mangrove species), fishing effort, and wildlife.

Roddy Thomas and Eoin Howlett participated in Mobil Europe's annual Regional Response Team (RRT) Exercise `HERMES', 9/10 November 1998, held this year in Southampton, England. ASA initially provided planning staff with modelling support to help set up the exercise scenario, a presentation on oil spill modelling to exercise participants and modelling support during the exercise event.

Matthew Ward joined ASA this October. He holds a Bachelor and Master of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Rhode Island. He has an extensive background in environmental science, numerical coastal model development and engineering design. At ASA he will be responsible for developing and analyzing hydrodynamic and water quality model scenarios.